Julia's notes

And how I use them in my trading

In partnership with

Good morning,

Below is the main reason I’ve been able to win 45 trades in a row since September 5.

That’s 52 days without a loss — see all of those trades here.

The Unlucky Investor’s Guide To Options Trading by Julia Spina

I recommend reading the:

  • Introduction starting on page 1

  • And chapter 3 trading short premium, pages 57-83

Key takeaway:

In the small world of successful traders, the common denominator is math.

Buying options for profit is like playing slots.

Gamblers who play enough may hit a jackpot.

Despite potential for huge payouts, most players average a loss in the long run.

This is due to small losses the majority of the time.

Traders who buy options are betting on large, directional moves.

Those assumptions may be correct and yield significant profits once and a while.

But underlying prices stay within their expected ranges most of the time.

This results in small, frequent losses and an average loss over time.

Selling options for profit is like owning the slot machines.

Casino owners have a long-run statistical advantage for every game.

Owners may pay out large jackpots.

But as long as players stay long enough, owners are compensated for taking on this risk, with nearly guaranteed profit in the long term.

Similarly, because short options carry tail risk but provide small, consistent profits from implied volatility (IV) overstatement, then they should average a profit in the long run if risk is managed. 

Long premium strategies have a high profit potential but cannot be consistently timed to ensure profit in the long term.

Similar to the slot machine owner, a short premium trader must reduce the impact of outlier losses to reach a large number of occurrences (trades) and realize the positive longer-term averages.

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I want to point out that I cannot speak for my members’ performance, as results may not be typical and trading is HARD. And I cannot guarantee you will make money. But what I can guarantee is that I will work my BUTT OFF to teach you WHY I trade WHAT I trade.

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